University of Wyoming Israel Election Survey results

University of Wyoming Israel Election Survey results

Seth Ward, University of Wyoming

January 31, 2013

This is an analysis of the University of Wyoming Israel Election Survey conducted December 2012-January 2013, regarding the 2013 elections for Israel’s Parliament, the Knesset.

 

The Israeli voter votes for a single slate of candidates for the Knesset (often called a “party list”) from among multiple slates proposed by various parties. Mandates for Knesset seats are distributed to these slates based on the proportion of the total vote; an introduction to the system and links for further information and essays were included material made available to those who took the survey, found in http://www.uwyo.edu/sward/israeli.elections.htm.

 

Thanks to everyone who took the survey. A preliminary report was published the day before the elections. This update takes into account a few surveys that came in after that time, with analysis. The complete results are given in the Appendix, with a few additional explanatory comments.   

Size of the survey and a few other introductory parameters.

There were 73 returns, and some of these were incomplete. This was not a scientific survey, so the results may be instructive or suggestive, but not conclusive.

The survey was constructed using the University of Wyoming Survey Tool. It remained open past the date at which analysis was begun for technical reasons. Minor divergence may result because some analyses were done before the receipt of the final response, or due to minor differences in the way the Survey program handled data and results from analysis in Microsoft Excel. Sometimes these differences are due to the different ways of handling skipped questions, irrelevant or incomplete responses, or certain types of survey questions, including questions for which respondents could choose from a list but also write in a different choice.

The participants were largely from North America, but there were participants from Germany, UK, Israel and China, and US participants who had completed high school in Turkey or in Africa. Not surprisingly, a large percentage of respondents appear to be connected with Colorado and Wyoming (usually indicated by high school or university affiliation). As noted below, only one reported having completed high school in Israel. Part of the significance of this endeavor is the non-Israeli response. In the summer and fall 2012, electoral preferences of non-US voters around the world were reported for the US presidential elections (along endless surveys of those likely to vote).  But there were relatively few surveys of persons unlikely to vote in the Israeli election process.

This survey was designed primarily as a teaching tool, and perhaps the best justification for it came not from the formal results but from comments received informally, explaining that it helped understand the process or some of the issues. Some of the questions were shaped in such a way as to make it easier to “score” the results to determine the degree to which predictions about Knesset and Government match the actual results.  

My Prediction based on the survey

It was possible to make an arbitrary prediction the day before the election based on survey results,  compiled not “scientifically” but “mathematically:” indices were assigned to various results, some of the lowest results dropped, the remaining ones added, divided and combined until reaching a result that could result in 120 members of Knesset. This approach took into account the predictions as well as the preferences of our survey respondents, but was independent of other surveys. Here is the list circulated in advance of the election—and the actual results.

 

“Survey Prediction” Jan 21, 2013

Party

Actual results

5

Am Shalem

11

Habayit Hayehudi

12

4

Hadash

4

14

Hatenua Chaired by Tzipi Livni

6

17

Israel Labor Party

15

11

Kadima

2

26

Likud Yisrael Beitenu

31

13

Meretz – Israel`s Left

6

8

Shas

11

2

United Torah Judaism

7

9

Yesh Atid

19

 

United Arab-Ta’al + Balad

7

120

 

 

 

 

How this was done: 

 

Some scores were eliminated: parties not receiving more than 10% in the individual vote, or more than 15% in the “vote for three parties” were excluded from the individual vote results; parties that received less than 15% in vote for three were excluded from the three party vote results. Similar limitations were imposed on the other categories.

% Individual party vote times 3

+ % vote for three parties result

+ Number predicting five largest parties

+ ½ % the vote for PM, assigned to the PM’s party

+ 1/3 % believing parties will be in the coalition.

Results divided by 6 and rounded to produce 120. (more than 0.33 rounded up, otherwise rounded down).

 

Actual “Votes” by preference (percentages)

 

Respondents were asked to vote for one list only, and in a separate question, asked to consider which lists they would vote for if they could chose three lists. In this chart, the total responses by percentage for this question are divided by three.

 

 

 

Vote for One

Vote for three

Likud Yisrael Beitenu

16%

11%

Meretz – Israel`s Left

14%

9%

Hatenua Chaired by Tzipi Livni

12%

7%

Israel Labor Party

11%

12%

Habayit Hayehudi

10%

5%

Kadima

7%

9%

Yesh Atid

5%

4%

The Pirates

4%

3%

Am Shalem

3%

6%

The Green and Young for a Green Future in Israel

3%

3%

United Torah Judaism

3%

1%

Brit Olam Legeulat Yisrael

1%

0%

Green Leaf – Liberal List

1%

4%

Hadash

1%

5%

Hatikva Leshinui

1%

1%

Otzma Leyisrael

1%

3%

Shas

1%

2%

Ahim Anachnu

0%

1%

Da-am – Workers` Party

0%

2%

Dor Bonei Haaretz

0%

0%

Eretz Hadasha

0%

1%

Haim Bekavod

0%

0%

Hayisraelim

0%

1%

Koach Lehashpia

0%

0%

Kulanu Haverim

0%

1%

Light

0%

0%

Mitkademet Liberalit Democratit

0%

3%

Moreshet Avot

0%

1%

National Democratic Assembly

0%

0%

Netzach

0%

1%

One Future

0%

0%

Raam – Taal – Mada

0%

1%

The Economics Party

0%

1%

Tzedek Hevrati

0%

1%

 

 

A few respondents voted for “none of the above” in the “vote for one” question. Fewer responded to the question about voting for three parties, but almost all in fact voted for three parties; when actual percent voting was factored in (96%, 296%), there are minor changes in the result. For example, Likud-Beitenu would receive 17% of votes actually cast.

 

The top seven parties on the list should come as no surprise. There was a lot of support for Meretz in this survey. Tzippi Livni and Kadima fared much better than in the actual Israeli electorate. Survey respondents were less attracted to Likud, Ha-Bayit Hayehudi and the religious parties than the Israeli electorate.

 

It may however be something of a surprise that Likud, HaBayit Hayehudi and Tzippi Livni all fared much better in “vote for one list” than in the question which asked respondents to consider which lists they would vote for if they could chose three lists. Striking examples of the reverse were Labor, Hadash, Kadima and Am Shalem. In other words: The Labor party did better as a “second choice” than as a first choice, beating Likud-Yisrael Beitenu. For Likud-Beitenu, Ha-Bayit Ha-Yehudi, Tzippi Livni, and Meretz, apparently those who did not vote for them as their “sole” vote would not generally consider them as a “second choice” if they could vote for three parties.

Prime Minister:

Israelis voted directly for Prime Minister only in three elections, but the survey had a question about voting for the Prime Minister. Netanyahu collected 31% of the vote of this group.  If the center/left parties united, they would have won, with almost half (about 47%) of the vote. Add votes for Avigdor Lieberman and Aryeh Elad, and at 35% the right wing is still far behind.

What coalition will emerge? How long will it take?

 

According to the results, over half the respondents predicted Likud-Yisrael Beteynu, and Shas would be in the coalition. 41% predicted HaBayit Hayehudi, About a third each predicted United Torah Judaism, Kadima, Ha-Tenuah-Tzippi Livni, and Labor would be coalition partners. Fewer than a quarter predicted Yesh Atid will be part of the government.

 

In the narrative response, the overwhelming sentiment was that the next government will favor security issues, right wing / nationalist and similar concerns. Most assumed that at least one Haredi party would be included. A few assumed that a centrist or left wing party would be included; one respondent said “as a fig leaf.” Only one respondent suggested that Yair Lapid would certainly take part in the next government.

 

The average prediction was that the coalition would include about 70 mandates. In the preliminary report Labor or Yesh Atid were suggested in order to round out 69 mandates. 

 

The average prediction was that the coalition would be accepted by the Knesset 25 days after the election, which I am “rounding out” to Sunday, February 17.

Notable results

a.      Netanyahu was widely expected to win of course: when respondents projected who they thought would be the next PM, they overwhelmingly selected Netanyahu.

b.      But in this survey, the single-party vote and especially the three-party vote did not particularly favor Netanyahu. In general, this survey was further to the left than the actual Israeli vote—and the religious parties were not well represented.

c.      Am Shalem did better in this survey than in the election; perhaps reflecting Haim Amsalem’s outreach to English speakers.

d.      There was little response in this survey from the Arab sector—probably an inevitable result of the distribution of this survey.

e.      Respondents were more realistic about who will actually be the largest parties: few thought Meretz would number among them.  Likud, Shas and Labor (!) got the most predictions. About half as many thought Tzippi Livni, Habayit Hayehudi and Kadima would get the next number of votes (in that order).

f.       The left/center leaning is not particularly surprising, although the strong showing of Labor is. Labor seems to be a solid “second or third choice.” If electors could vote for three parties, Labor polled just a little more than Likud and more than Meretz, both of which polled higher than Labor in the traditional “single party” vote.

g.      Another surprise, to me, is that Am Shalem polled identical numbers to Kadima in the “vote for three parties” question.  Am Shalem played no significant role in predictions for largest parties or coalition partners, but this could mean it is a party worth watching. (More likely though, given the fact that it did not gain enough votes to enter the Knesset, it could be the end of Rabbi Amsalem’s Knesset career).  In the actual results, Am Shalem’s results were not far from Kadima’s either, although of course Kadima had more than 2% of the votes and Am Shalem did not.

What issues are most important?

Social issues topped security in the list of responses, with State of Palestine and economic issues coming not far behind. Religious Divisions were next. All these were noted by over a quarter of respondents. Fewer noted Iran or education. Although “social issues” topped this list, only 17% noted Israeli Arabs and only 5% noted Haredim.  

 

My survey did not include “Peace” as one of the named issues—but this was the most frequently mentioned word in the “other” responses.  

 

Many respondents reflected on their votes—in some cases at great length. Their views are are reproduced at the beginning of the appendix.  Respondent comments make it clear that leadership, personal views about various leaders, personal political placement (left/center, right), security, relations with the Palestinians, and social and religious divisions inside Israel are important considerations. The considerations which loomed large in the narrative descriptions were not necessarily those in choices from the list; in particular, economic and social issues were much less frequently mentioned explicitly in the narratives.  Despite great concern over Iran, it was not particularly high in the choices (20%), and played even less of a role in the narrative descriptions given by respondents.

 

Respondents

Few respondents reported growing up in Israel or being citizens. A few mentioned they were eligible to vote but would not be voting. Most respondents completed high school in the USA. One was born in another Middle Eastern country, and several completed high school in UK and Germany. South America, Africa and China were also represented.

 

About one third each were students, teachers (including professors, researchers, university faculty and others); or other (a rabbi, lawyers, professionals, etc.).

 

Significance

The study was hardly scientific. This survey provided respondents with a venue in which to express their political opinions—much as was provided in late summer and fall 2012 around the world with the proliferation of polling about the American Presidential campaign. I believe that asking both about preference and prediction, and inclusion of a question about voting for three parties, countered at least to a certain extent the bias inherent in some such surveys, in which people do not always articulate the breadth of their views, or “pick winners” rather than vote conscience—although there is no way to confirm this conclusion at this time. Most important, the many students who took this survey got a glimpse of the complexity of the process. Responses by and large showed choices were made carefully – many took the time to lay out articulate statements about their choices.

Yesh Atid was probably unfamiliar to the largely non-Israeli respondents; both Tzippi Livni and Kadima were familiar “brands” that did better among this group than in the Israeli electorate. This is a left-leaning crowd, as seen by support for Meretz and lack of support for Netanyahu.

Israeli election results included a tremendous showing for Yesh Atid—not at all mirrored in this survey, or in most Israeli surveys either. Otherwise, though, except for Meretz and other understandable differences, the results of this survey were not as far off from the Israeli electorate as I thought (or most people would have thought) when I processed them the day before the election. At least among those who responded to this survey, there was great awareness of Israeli politics, and enthusiasm about expressing opinions about parties, candidates and issues.

 

Seth Ward

 


 

Appendix: Why they voted as they did: selections from respondent comments

 

(the rest of the survey questions and responses are below).

 

Leadership

I’d like to see Israel have new leadership who are concerned with the welfare of all of its people and not just the powerful.

Strong leadership that understands Israel’s right to exist is not up for discussion.

experienced leadership, strong security policy, & focus on economy.

Israel has need for strong leadership, committed to a non-apologetic stance on her right to exist.

A good leader must be a wise leader.

How to find a suitable big fish in such a tiny pot?

 

Left/Center Values

Progressive left-liberal values.

left orientation.

Centrist.

I’m a leftist in Israeli terms 🙂

progressive centrist.

Only the left has a vision for justice and democracy in Eretz Israel.

Center-left views.

left wing votes.

 

Right

I want a stronger, far right Israel.

 

Jewish /Zionist Identity

I want to keep Israel alive and Jewish

I want most of all for Israel to be as secure as possible and I want it to remain a safe place for Jews to live.

A progressive, yet Zionist Israel that is prosperous, secure, and at peace with its neighbors

 

Tzippi Livni

Selected Tzipi Livni ’cause she is level headed and pragramatic.

Ideologically, I’d vote for Hatnua, but I don’t trust Livni.  I indicate support for Am Shalem because the issues raised — re; the secular-dati divide — are key to peace, security, and prosperity.

I trust Tzipi Livni.  I hope that religious issues can be set aside from politics and real progress can be made.

 

Yachimovich

Yachimovich has a history of anti-war and two-state politics, and her background in journalism gives her a perspective on subaltern groups in Israel and Palestine that most of the current Knesset seems to love ignoring.

Labor party pays more attention on peace process

 

Yesh Atid and others (including Hadash!)

At first look my selections may not make the most sense, but they all relate to the biggest problems facing Israel. Before Israel can effectively discuss a peace process, largely and accurately regarded as the most significant issue at stake in the country’s future, it must resolve its own demographic, economic, and societal issues. The party with the best approach and the greatest recognition of these issues is Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid, explaining my selection of this new party. Yesh Atid is also composed largely of those new to politics, something necessary to break through Israel’s deep political divisions and redirect the focus of government. As with most political systems, the best solutions involve moderation and compromise. Hatnua was founded based on this concept of moderation, and stands the best chance of effectively approaching many issues in Israel and displays, out of the largest parties, the most willingness to compromise with various groups within Israel following the collapse of Kadima as an effective party. After resolving Israel’s current demographic and economic issues, lies the behemoth of the Arab-Israeli political process. While I support a two state solution, Israel must also recognize that it isn’t just a nation of the Jewish people anymore. To not do so would blatantly ignore current demographic trends and endanger Israel’s future. For that reason, I also support Hadash as a party working to bridge the divide between Jews and Arabs within Israel, and as a party that recognizes that Israel, while meant to be Jewish in its founding, is not Jewish in reality, and never fully will be.

 

Justice, Fairness, Civil rights, Social Divisions

The State of Israel must continue to pursue the path of equality of opportunity, civil rights and liberties, fairness, justice and security.

I think that those topics are the most important topics for a western democracy.

Support individual freedom, pro Israeli Arabs, and settlers

I vote for parties that support social justice and peace

Israel must work on its societal values and ongoing rifts between  tribal  communities.

Note: the party list did not include all the ones I was looking for. Israel needs a realist willing to stake out controversial, right-leaning on peace, independent economical, and co-optive haredi social  positions in order to maximize ability to reach a balanced compromise.

 

I based my selections on what I see as Israel’s biggest problem: division – both internal and external. The secular and haredi division (putting it very simplistically) and, of course, the Conflict. I think it falls to Israel to devise a two-state solution without negotiations, outline it, and present it to the UN for vote. It would force Fatah and Hamas to state their real intention (destroy Israel) for all the world to see or accept the state. Then, if violence continues, open war can be declared between nation-states. I don’t think that would be great, but it would shut down a lot of some of the criticism because it would give the Palestinians what they ostensibly want while placing Israel on par, nation to nation, allowing for more leeway in military operations. The parties I selected and people I selected I think are best positioned to accomplish that task. Also, a similar division is appearing in Israeli society. A conversation must develop regarding what to do with a growing haredi population and the resentment and frustrations of the secular population.

 

Israel is in crisis because of religious divisions. Peace with its neighbors, or some sort of working relationship is crucial to advance within and without.

I believe that since Israel has been quite stable (economically) over the past few years, the focus should be on minority rights (both ethnic and religious) and foreign policy, including an open debate about a Palestinian State.

 

Security, Islam, Peace

Islam and Muslims are the biggest threat to the state of Israel

The security of Israel is of the utmost importance if Israel is to remain a country.

Pirates because I like pirates, security because Israel does not have kind neighbors. [This comment is more telling than it seems at first glance; the respondent was a young student who took some questions seriously—and “goofed off” on the others. Given the flippancy of many of the other answers of this respondent, the reference to Israel’s neighbors reflects a concern serious enough to overcome the comic or non-serious answers.] 

I would want the prime minister and the party in power to be moving toward a solution with the Palestinian territories as their top priority

I favor a two-state solution, if possible (given Arabs’ virulent hatred of Jews).  I favor a democratic Jewish state in secure borders, with religious freedom and equal treatment of all Jews, including sharing of burdens and work.

I am primarily concerned with bringing about a two-state solution, whereby there would be a Palestinian State alongside Israel, which would be a Jewish State but with full equality for its Arab citizens.  Secondarily, I would strongly support weakening the Orthodox stranglehold on Israeli religious and personal life so that non-Orthodox rabbis, communities and individuals would enjoy equal rights as well.  It would be wonderful if there were a center-left coalition government with Livni as PM (although I realize that is highly unlikely.)

PM Netanyahu = continuity of service and clarity of position on issues, tho’ stop the settlements where unjustified. Hatikva = hope for security and prosperity. Proper leadership ensures security, addresses economic issues, and should be able to galvanize itself against Iranian aggression

Survey questions and responses as of January 31 2013

The survey was left open until today for technical reasons. Some of the analyses in this report were done shortly before the closing of the survey, with only very minor changes to the numbers returned. The results below were examined on January 31, 2013

1.      Vote for ONE party list for the 19th Knesset. The list names are displayed in random order.        

(

The list names were displayed to respondents in random order; here they are displayed from largest to smallest vote, as is the case with most of the following tabulations).                                                                                   

 

 

Likud Yisrael Beitenu

Response equal to 16

12

16%

Meretz – Israel`s Left

Response equal to 14

10

14%

Hatenua Chaired by Tzipi Livni

Response equal to 12

9

12%

Israel Labor Party

Response equal to 11

8

11%

Habayit Hayehudi

Response equal to 10

7

10%

Kadima

Response equal to 7

5

7%

Yesh Atid

Response equal to 5

4

5%

The Pirates

Response equal to 4

3

4%

“Empty Envelope” (none of the above)

Response equal to 4

3

4%

United Torah Judaism

Response equal to 3

2

3%

Am Shalem

Response equal to 3

2

3%

The Green and Young for a Green Future in Israel

Response equal to 3

2

3%

Hatikva Leshinui

Response equal to 1

1

1%

Brit Olam Legeulat Yisrael

Response equal to 1

1

1%

Green Leaf – Liberal List

Response equal to 1

1

1%

Shas

Response equal to 1

1

1%

Otzma Leyisrael

Response equal to 1

1

1%

Hadash

Response equal to 1

1

1%

Raam – Taal – Mada

Visual spacer

0

0%

National Democratic Assembly

Visual spacer

0

0%

Ahim Anachnu

Visual spacer

0

0%

Kulanu Haverim

Visual spacer

0

0%

Koach Lehashpia

Visual spacer

0

0%

The Economics Party

Visual spacer

0

0%

Mitkademet Liberalit Democratit

Visual spacer

0

0%

Netzach

Visual spacer

0

0%

Light

Visual spacer

0

0%

Haim Bekavod

Visual spacer

0

0%

Da-am – Workers` Party

Visual spacer

0

0%

Tzedek Hevrati

Visual spacer

0

0%

One Future

Visual spacer

0

0%

Moreshet Avot

Visual spacer

0

0%

Eretz Hadasha

Visual spacer

0

0%

Hayisraelim

Visual spacer

0

0%

Dor Bonei Haaretz

Visual spacer

0

0%

 

 

 

1.      Whom would you vote for?               

 

 


Response Total

Response Percent

Points

Avg

Benjamin Netanyahu

Response equal to 29

15

29%

Tzippi Livni

Response equal to 29

15

29%

Other, please specify 

Response equal to 22

11

22%

Shelly Yachimovich

Response equal to 12

6

12%

Yair Lapid

Response equal to 4

2

4%

Shaul Mofaz

Response equal to 2

1

2%

Avigdor Lieberman

Response equal to 2

1

2%

Total Respondents 

51

100%

 

 

 

The 11 “other” votes were: 2 for Zahava Gal-On (and another vote for Meretz, as noted) and 1 each for the other parties represented.

 

 

None

None or irrelevant

5

Meretz

Zahava Gal-On

2

Meretz

Yossi Beilin  [Meretz. Beilin was given the symbolic honor of a place at the end of the list, with a number of other former leaders. His position was 118!]  

1

HaBayit Hayehudi

Naftali Bennet

1

Labor

Hertog [presumably Isaac Herzog, Labor #2 position]

1

Otzma Le-Yisrael

Aryeh Eldad

1

 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

 

2.      Voting for more than one party list invalidates a ballot, but suppose you *could* vote for three parties for the 19th Knesset. Which would they be? (Select the party list you voted for above if you’d include it among the three). The list names are displayed in random order.    

 

 

 


Response Total

Response Percent

Points

Avg

Israel Labor Party

Response equal to 37

19

37%

Likud Yisrael Beitenu

Response equal to 31

16

31%

Kadima

Response equal to 27

14

27%

Meretz – Israel`s Left

Response equal to 27

14

27%

Hatenua Chaired by Tzipi Livni

Response equal to 24

12

24%

Am Shalem

Response equal to 18

9

18%

Habayit Hayehudi

Response equal to 16

8

16%

Hadash

Response equal to 14

7

14%

Yesh Atid

Response equal to 12

6

12%

Green Leaf – Liberal List

Response equal to 12

6

12%

The Pirates

Response equal to 10

5

10%

The Green and Young for a Green Future in Israel

Response equal to 10

5

10%

Mitkademet Liberalit Democratit

Response equal to 8

4

8%

Otzma Leyisrael

Response equal to 8

4

8%

Da-am – Workers` Party

Response equal to 6

3

6%

Shas

Response equal to 6

3

6%

Raam – Taal – Mada

Response equal to 4

2

4%

Hatikva Leshinui

Response equal to 4

2

4%

Kulanu Haverim

Response equal to 4

2

4%

The Economics Party

Response equal to 4

2

4%

Tzedek Hevrati

Response equal to 4

2

4%

United Torah Judaism

Response equal to 2

1

2%

Ahim Anachnu

Response equal to 2

1

2%

Netzach

Response equal to 2

1

2%

Moreshet Avot

Response equal to 2

1

2%

Eretz Hadasha

Response equal to 2

1

2%

Hayisraelim

Response equal to 2

1

2%

National Democratic Assembly

Visual spacer

0

0%

Koach Lehashpia

Visual spacer

0

0%

Brit Olam Legeulat Yisrael

Visual spacer

0

0%

Light

Visual spacer

0

0%

Haim Bekavod

Visual spacer

0

0%

One Future

Visual spacer

0

0%

Dor Bonei Haaretz

Visual spacer

0

0%

 

 

Note: Average is based on maximum of 300%, that is, three parties mentioned. Percentages add up to 296%

 

3.      Which types of concerns are most important to you in your vote for Knesset and Prime Minister? The list displays in random order.                 

 

 


Response Total

Response Percent

Points

Avg

Social Issues

Response equal to 43

22

43%

Security

Response equal to 41

21

41%

State of Palestine

Response equal to 33

17

33%

Economic divisions

Response equal to 29

15

29%

Religious Diversity

Response equal to 27

14

27%

Settlements

Response equal to 22

11

22%

Iran

Response equal to 20

10

20%

Leadership

Response equal to 20

10

20%

Education

Response equal to 18

9

18%

Israeli Arabs

Response equal to 16

8

16%

Gaza

Response equal to 10

5

10%

Infrastructure

Response equal to 6

3

6%

Haredim

Response equal to 4

2

4%

 

 

 

Only four responses to “other” in this question. Significantly, the Survey did not include “peace” as a choice, but two (4% of total) chose it as “other.”

 

Peace process leading to a two state peace agreement

Peace

Arabs

Women’s religious rights and freedoms

 

4.      In your own words, please explain your choices above (for party lists, Prime Minister, issues).   

 

(results given above).

 

5.      Now we turn to results, without necessarily referring to your own vote. Which five parties do you think will have the largest delegations in the new Knesset? List names are displayed in random order.     

 

 

 

Response Total

Response Percent

Likud Yisrael Beitenu

Response equal to 95

39

95%

Israel Labor Party

Response equal to 85

35

85%

Shas

Response equal to 68

28

68%

Hatenua Chaired by Tzipi Livni

Response equal to 46

19

46%

Habayit Hayehudi

Response equal to 44

18

44%

Kadima

Response equal to 41

17

41%

Yesh Atid

Response equal to 29

12

29%

Meretz – Israel`s Left

Response equal to 17

7

17%

United Torah Judaism

Response equal to 15

6

15%

National Democratic Assembly

Response equal to 5

2

5%

Hatikva Leshinui

Response equal to 5

2

5%

Am Shalem

Response equal to 5

2

5%

Mitkademet Liberalit Democratit

Response equal to 5

2

5%

The Pirates

Response equal to 5

2

5%

The Green and Young for a Green Future in Israel

Response equal to 5

2

5%

Eretz Hadasha

Response equal to 5

2

5%

Ahim Anachnu

Response equal to 2

1

2%

Kulanu Haverim

Response equal to 2

1

2%

Koach Lehashpia

Response equal to 2

1

2%

The Economics Party

Response equal to 2

1

2%

Brit Olam Legeulat Yisrael

Response equal to 2

1

2%

Hadash

Response equal to 2

1

2%

One Future

Response equal to 2

1

2%

Hayisraelim

Response equal to 2

1

2%

Dor Bonei Haaretz

Response equal to 2

1

2%

Raam – Taal – Mada

Visual spacer

0

0%

Netzach

Visual spacer

0

0%

Light

Visual spacer

0

0%

Haim Bekavod

Visual spacer

0

0%

Da-am – Workers` Party

Visual spacer

0

0%

Green Leaf – Liberal List

Visual spacer

0

0%

Otzma Leyisrael

Visual spacer

0

0%

Tzedek Hevrati

Visual spacer

0

0%

Moreshet Avot

Visual spacer

0

0%

 

 

The actual five largest lists in the Knesset are: Likud-Yisrael Beitenu, Yesh Atid, Israel Labor Party, Habayit Hayehudi, and Shas.

 

 

6.      How large do you think the largest delegation will be?         

 

Response Average                           32.8

 

Note: The accuracy of this prediction is gratifying but perhaps misleading, as it includes several responses of 00 and one 99. With these removed, the average is 35.6. Here are the other responses:

 

 

Size of delegation

Percent of significant responses

60

3%

50

9%

45

3%

40

17%

38

9%

37

3%

36

3%

35

17%

34

3%

33

3%

32

9%

31

3%

30

3%

28

3%

25

3%

24

3%

23

3%

15

6%

100%

 

 

 

7.      Next Prime Minister?      

 

 

 

Response Total

Response Percent

Benjamin Netanyahu

Response equal to 88

36

88%

Shelly Yachimovich

Response equal to 5

2

5%

Other, please specify 

Response equal to 5

2

5%

Tzippi Livni

Response equal to 2

1

2%

Yair Lapid

Response equal to 2

1

2%

Shaul Mofaz

Visual spacer

0

0%

Avigdor Lieberman

Visual spacer

0

0%

 

 

The responses for “Other” were “?” and a period of time rather than a candidate name.

 

8.      How many days will elapse from January 22 until the Knesset confirms a Prime Minister, Ministers, and governing coalition? (Choosing ‘0’ or ’50’ means you think a new   government will not be confirmed by the 49th day after January 22, 2013).     

 

Response Average  22.63

 

The Survey Tool gives 22.63 as Response Average. But, eliminating responses of “0,” the average is 23.8. One respondent entered “5;” strictly speaking, this is impossible in practice as the election results have to be certified before the President can ask someone to attempt to form a government. Election results are generally certified a week following the elections.

 

9.      How large do you think the coalition will be? Enter a number of Knesset Mandates from 61 (the minimum) to 120 (a unity government encompassing the entire Knesset).

The survey returned 69.76 as the average.

 

 

Mandate for Coalition

Number of respondents

 

61-64

14

34%

65-69

11

27%

70-79

10

24%

80 or more

6

15%

 

 

11. Select up to FIVE parties you believe will be in the government coalition. The list names are displayed in random order.  

 

 

 

Response Total

Response Percent

Likud Yisrael Beitenu

Response equal to 85

35

85%

Shas

Response equal to 68

28

68%

Habayit Hayehudi

Response equal to 41

17

41%

United Torah Judaism

Response equal to 34

14

34%

Kadima

Response equal to 34

14

34%

Hatenua Chaired by Tzipi Livni

Response equal to 34

14

34%

Israel Labor Party

Response equal to 32

13

32%

Yesh Atid

Response equal to 22

9

22%

Meretz – Israel`s Left

Response equal to 17

7

17%

Da-am – Workers` Party

Response equal to 10

4

10%

Hatikva Leshinui

Response equal to 7

3

7%

Moreshet Avot

Response equal to 7

3

7%

Hayisraelim

Response equal to 7

3

7%

National Democratic Assembly

Response equal to 5

2

5%

Kulanu Haverim

Response equal to 5

2

5%

The Economics Party

Response equal to 5

2

5%

The Pirates

Response equal to 5

2

5%

Green Leaf – Liberal List

Response equal to 5

2

5%

Otzma Leyisrael

Response equal to 5

2

5%

Ahim Anachnu

Response equal to 2

1

2%

Am Shalem

Response equal to 2

1

2%

Mitkademet Liberalit Democratit

Response equal to 2

1

2%

Brit Olam Legeulat Yisrael

Response equal to 2

1

2%

Netzach

Response equal to 2

1

2%

Light

Response equal to 2

1

2%

The Green and Young for a Green Future in Israel

Response equal to 2

1

2%

Raam – Taal – Mada

Visual spacer

0

0%

Koach Lehashpia

Visual spacer

0

0%

Haim Bekavod

Visual spacer

0

0%

Tzedek Hevrati

Visual spacer

0

0%

Hadash

Visual spacer

0

0%

One Future

Visual spacer

0

0%

Eretz Hadasha

Visual spacer

0

0%

Dor Bonei Haaretz

Visual spacer

0

0%

 

 

12. In your own words, what groups will be part of the Government, and what do you think will be the most important considerations for forming it?          

 

Likud-Beiteinu will head a coalition created by recruiting Haredi parties. L-B’s sole consideration will be creating a coalition, the Haredi parties will be focused on maintaining ultra-Orthodox hegemony.

Right-wing nationalist and Orthodox religious parties.

centrist zionist parties, power for religious parties to support yeshivot etc., social issues

It will be a lot like the current government, meaning a right wing government

Right, Left, Religious and Secular groups in order to promote a unity government.

Centrality

I thing that right wing groups will be part of the new government.

It will be a primarily rightist government with one centre-left party for balance, which will receive one or two most senior Government posts in return.

nationalist parties 

Stability should be considered for the coalition

The fact that there are not Arabs…

Right-winged, religious

Strong nationalism will win out

Largely a right-wing coalition with Yesh Atid as a fig-leaf for national unity.

Right, Religious, Moderates

The coalition needs to represent the diverse views of Israel’s population.

I think security and religious issues will dominate, including the issue of settlements, so I think those groups who can fundamentally agree on at least two of those issues will form the Government.

The center left will prefer opposition to maintain its legitimacy, so a far right government will form.

A) the ones with the biggest war chest B) political self-interest

power mongering

I think that there will be a significant leftist presence in the government, but I think with growing fears of Iran, Egypt, and a Palestinian uprising, the more conservative parties will dominate.

I believe the 5 largest Jewish parties in Israel will comprise the governing coalition, on the basis of core ideology, with right-leaning parties having the edge in numbers and electoral representation

Current worries over Iran, Gaza and the Arab Spring have put security at the top of Israel’s list of concerns. Thus, hardline parties, like that of Likud Yisrael Beitenu and the Jewish Home (Habayit Hayehudi), will likely have the most success. However, with these new fears and a general shift to the right in Israel, a rejection reaction will occur, and largely already has when looking at the recent protests over housing, social issues and the military draft of haredim. As a result, a coalition of moderate parties will form to challenge the ruling right wing coalition, forcing extreme right wing parties like Otzma Leyisrael to accept a compromise and join the ruling coalition. The most important considerations will involve security (Iran, Hamas, the Arab Spring) concessions to Palestine, or lack thereof, and the economic issues plaguing certain sectors of the Israeli population.

Keep Israel safe against all threats from the Muslim world

Likud because relations with other countries in the Middle East

Security. The Haredim will secure their privileges. Settlements will continue to grow and proliferate.

Likud will probably remain.

The most important considerations, unfortunately, seem to be the almost apartheid agenda held by the right wing of government. The most important considerations will be expansion, until power changes hands in a big way.

The large parties will remain part of the coalition. Voting results will show a more polarized and right-wing government.

I think that Likud and the religious parties are likely to control the government, in alliance with either more right-wing parties or else Labor. The main consideration will be whose votes can Netanyahu count on and what concessions need to be made by Likud.

Groups who’ve prevailed in the past when security was top issue: Labor, Likud. Resurgence of wide-spread anti-semitism in region; radical Islam infiltration; usurpation of resources trying to keep all citizens safe. Worldwide apathy and indifference re: willingness to work, get a job, be productive.

labor party 

relations with arabs

ultra-orthodox; right-wing; settlers

Social Issues

 

13. Now for some demographic information. First, something about your nationality or nationality.

For Israelis, please indicate whether you are actually voting in the Israeli election, or potentially able to vote.   

 

 

 

 

Response Total

Response Percent

I am eligible to vote in Israel and *am* voting for the 19th Knesset

Response equal to 5

2

5%

I am Israeli or have Israeli citizenship or have voted in an Israeli election in the past (government or municipal), but am *not* voting.

Response equal to 20

8

20%

I hold dual citizenship

Response equal to 20

8

20%

I am a US citizen

Response equal to 68

28

68%

I am Canadian

Response equal to 7

3

7%

Other

 

4

 

 

 

One each for China, Colombia, Germany, UK.  This survey tool returned a response of [no answer entered] for all other respondents.

 

14. Please enter your age.                 

 

Current average: 38.98. One response was 0; removing it, the average is 39.95.

 

 

over 70

1

3%

60-69

5

13%

50-59

9

23%

40-49

6

13%

30-39

8

20%

21-29

5

10%

20 and younger

9

20%

 

 

 

15. What is your profession? If you are currently in a college or university degree program, seeking an undergraduate or graduate degree, what school do you attend and which degree are you seeking?        

 

Responses fall into three groups:

 

Teacher

University

College professor

Professor

Lecturer

Historian

Professor

Professor

University faculty

Researcher

Academic

Professor Emerita

Teacher, clerk

Shanghai university

 

Student at university of Düsseldorf

Researcher / doctoral candidate

Undergraduate Student. University of Wyoming, B.A. in Religious Studies minor in Psychology.

I am a student at the University of Wyoming studying International Relations

I’m currently an undergraduate at Harvard University pursuing a degree in Near Eastern Languages and Civilizations (Modern Middle Eastern Studies) or International Development.

Student

Student

[student]

Student

Student

In High School

 

Writer (poet, literary translator, book reviewer).

Medical Dr

Fundraiser

Rabbi

Self employed

Lawyer

Attorney

Work in a non-profit organization

Technical field

I don’t attend a university

Retired lawyer.

Self-employed.

homemaker

Commercial Architecture

Urban planner

Writer/office assistant

 

16. In which state (or country, if not within the U.S.) did you attend high school?          

USA respondents:

 

Colorado

18%

New York

15%

Wyoming

13%

California

10%

New Jersey

8%

Ohio

3%

USA [did not mention State]

3%

 

 

Non US respondents

 

Canada

2

5%

Germany

2

5%

UK

2

5%

china

1

3%

Colombia

1

3%

Iran

1

3%

Israel

1

3%

Turkey

1

3%

Zimbabwe

1

3%

 

 

Based on the context, “Iran” is a “joke” response. Based on other answers in this person’s response, this respondent is a high school student in Colorado, and should be added to respondents answering “Colorado” to this question.

 

 

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